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前50强的半导体公司大洗牌?




关键词:
在风水轮流转的半导体市场,去年的赢家往往成为今年的输家,去年的输家却往往成了今年的赢家。虽然现在开始谈论2007年谁将问鼎半导体公司前50强还为时过早,早期的迹象显示至少有一部分财富的逆转现象已经在悄然进行了。



Two of last year’s biggest chip-industry stories, for instance, were the surprising surge in DRAM memory sales, as well as the rise of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and the accompanying slump at its microprocessor rival Intel Corp. Yet during this year’s Q1, both situations appear to be reversing.

AMD’s sales grew 44 percent last year, from $3.9 billion to $5.6 billion according to market research firm IC Insights. Its impressive performance came from taking significant market-share from Intel, as well as its $5.4 billion October purchase of graphics chip maker ATI Technologies. Intel’s 2006 sales, meanwhile, fell more than $3 billion – a 9 percent decline during a year when overall chip industry sales climbed 9 percent.

Even without the ATI purchase, AMD’s sales grew nearly 30 percent last year according to Gartner Dataquest semiconductor analyst John Barber. “AMD has always been a cheaper solution [than Intel],” he says, “but for the first time in a while they were also on par in performance and power consumption last year.” That price-performance edge helped AMD sell significantly more chips to PC makers, most notably Dell, which previously had used only Intel processors.

Intel responded aggressively, however, by cutting costs, selling non-essential business units and rushing a variety of new chips to market with improved performance and power use. It now seems to be regaining much of its lost microprocessor market share, according to iSuppli, climbing from about 76 percent at last year’s end to more than 80 percent during this year’s Q1. As a result, Intel’s Q1 profits increased 7 percent sequentially to $1.6 billion, while AMD reported a $611 million net loss and a 30 percent sales decline. “A lot of things are happening at Intel now because of AMD’s [earlier] market gains,” says IC Insights President Bill McClean. “They woke Intel up.”

Intel did not respond to interview requests, however, from the AMD camp, Marty Seyer, senior VP of AMD’s commercial business, vows his company will rebound. AMD continues to win new PC supply contracts, he says, and expects to benefit from launching new four-core processors around mid-year, as well as new ATI graphic chips. Says Seyer: “We’re still expecting growth.”



Worldwide 2006 Top 50 Semiconductor Sales Leaders ($M)

2006 Rank 2005 Rank Company Headquarters 2005 Tot Semi 2006 Tot Semi 06/05 % Change

1 1 Intel U.S. 35,395 32,268 -9%

2 2 Samsung South Korea 17,838 19,670 10%

3 3 TI U.S. 11,300 13,200 17%

4 5 ST Europe 8,870 9,854 11%

5 4 Toshiba Japan 9,045 9,782 8%

6 7 TSMC* Taiwan 8,217 9,748 19%

7 9 Hynix South Korea 5,599 8,009 43%

8 6 Renesas Japan 8,266 7,900 -4%

9 10 Freescale U.S. 5,598 6,049 8%

10 8 NXP (former Philips) Europe 5,646 5,874 4%

11 14 Sony Japan 4,223 5,804 37%

12 11 NEC Japan 5,593 5,685 2%

13 16 AMD U.S. 3,936 5,649 44%

14 12 Micron U.S. 4,954 5,520 11%

15 21 Qimonda Europe 3,423 5,413 58%

16 13 Infineon Europe 4,874 5,120 5%

17 19 Qualcomm** U.S. 3,457 4,422 28%

18 18 IBM U.S. 3,495 3,955 13%

19 17 Fujitsu Japan 3,500 3,858 10%

20 15 Matsushita Japan 4,097 3,835 -6%

21 22 UMC* Taiwan 3,259 3,670 13%

22 24 Broadcom** U.S. 2,671 3,668 37%

23 29 Elpida Japan 1,954 3,474 78%

24 20 Sharp Japan 3,430 3,471 1%

25 26 Nvidia** U.S. 2,353 2,980 27%

26 27 SanDisk** U.S. 2,067 2,927 42%

27 23 Rohm Japan 2,813 2,850 1%

28 40 Powerchip Taiwan 1,603 2,829 76%

29 25 Analog Devices U.S. 2,370 2,587 9%

30 28 Spansion U.S. 2,003 2,579 29%

31 41 Nanya Taiwan 1,546 2,307 49%

32 39 Marvell** U.S. 1,631 2,198 35%

33 30 National U.S. 1,939 2,027 5%

34 37 Maxim U.S. 1,670 1,990 19%

35 38 Xilinx** U.S. 1,645 1,872 14%

36 56 ProMOS Taiwan 916 1,845 101%

37 36 Atmel U.S. 1,676 1,751 4%

38 43 Fairchild U.S. 1,426 1,651 16%

39 35 Sanyo Japan 1,715 1,640 -4%

40 42 MediaTek** Taiwan 1,444 1,626 13%

41 33 Oki Japan 1,770 1,590 -10%

42 31 Avago** U.S. 1,825 1,588 -13%

43 45 ON Semi U.S. 1,261 1,532 21%

44 44 Mitsubishi Japan 1,345 1,530 14%

45 49 Chartered* Singapore 1,132 1,528 35%

46 34 Agere**(Merging w/LSI) U.S. 1,735 1,525 -12%

47 47 SMIC* China 1,183 1,455 23%

48 32 ATI** (Purch. By AMD) Canada 1,810 1,350 -25%

49 48 Vishay (incl. Siliconix) U.S. 1,142 1,305 14%

50 50 Altera** U.S. 1,124 1,286 14%

Top 10 Total 115,774 122,354 6%

Top 25 Total 170,993 188,878 10%

Top 50 Total 211,784 236,246 12%

*Foundry **Fabless

Source: IC Insights

The “Worldwide 2006 Top 50 Semiconductor Sales Leaders” chart above (ICs, optoelectronics, discretes, and sensors) has 23 suppliers headquartered in the United States; 12 in Japan; six in Taiwan; four in Europe; two in South Korea; and one each in Singapore, Canada, and China. The Top 50 listing also includes four pure-play foundries (TSMC, UMC, Chartered, and SMIC) and 11 fabless companies.

In total, the top 50 semiconductor companies’ sales increased 12 percent in 2006, three points more than the worldwide semiconductor industry growth rate of 9 percent. Twenty-four companies had semiconductor sales of at least $3 billion last year, about the same dollar amount needed to construct a high-volume 300-mm wafer fabrication facility. It took almost $1.3 billion in sales just to make it into the top 50 ranking.

Despite a 9 percent decline in sales in 2006, Intel easily maintained its hold on the No. 1 spot, having about 64 percent higher semiconductor sales than second-place Samsung (down from about double Samsung’s sales in 2005). After growing at about twice the industry rate in 2005, Intel posted the biggest sales decline of any of the top-40 ranked companies in 2006.

The top 10 companies in 2006 include three U.S., two European, two Japanese, two South Korean, and one Taiwanese company. Six out of the nine top 25 suppliers that lost positions in the 2006 ranking were Japanese companies (the other companies in the top 25 that slipped in the rankings were NXP, Micron, and Infineon).

Infineon and its spin-off, Qimonda, each had more than $5 billion in sales in 2006. Combined, the companies’ sales would have been $10.5 billion, which would have been enough to rank them as the fourth-largest semiconductor supplier in the world last year. In fact, with Infineon still holding about 85 percent of Qimonda stock, there are some who believe that the two companies’ sales figures should be combined.

Because of the big decline in Intel’s 2006 sales, the top 10 semiconductor companies, in total, showed only a 6 percent sales increase from 2005, whereas the top 25 posted a 10 percent jump, one point above the industry-average growth. Five of the top 10 companies—Intel, Toshiba, Renesas, Freescale, and NXP—registered less than the 2006 total semiconductor industry growth rate of 9 percent. Moreover, 17 of the top 50 major semiconductor suppliers registered less-than-average (that is, 9 percent) semiconductor sales growth.



Memory glut?

Seven of the 10 fastest-growing companies on Electronic Business’ Top 50 list were memory chip makers, including the Taiwanese trio ProMOS, Powerchip and Nanya, whose 2006 sales climbed an amazing 101, 76 and 49 percent respectively. All of those are relatively small players. But larger memory makers Hynix (up 43 percent), Qimonda (up 58 percent) and Elpida (up 78 percent) also grew rapidly last year. Even SanDisk, a leading maker of flash memory chips – which declined sharply in price during 2006 – saw a 42 percent sales gain last year.

Gary Grandbois, iSuppli principal analyst, says that PC makers preparing for Microsoft’s new memory-hungry Vista operating system kept DRAM prices high during most of last year. Global DRAM sales grew 36 percent in 2006 – four times faster than the overall chip industry – to $33.9 billion. This year, however, iSuppli expects chip prices to weaken, while the overall memory market (including both DRAM and flash chips) grows only 3.5 percent. Grandbois doesn’t expect much improvement for the foreseeable future. “Memory chips may be one of the weaker growth areas over the next 5 years,” he says.

The problem? Over-investment in new chip-making capacity. “It’s the same old story,” sighs IC Insights’ McClean. “DRAM producers got a whiff of a good market and have just gone crazy on capital spending.” The DRAM industry spent almost $14 billion – more than 40 percent of its sales – to expand production last year, he says, while the flash memory industry reinvested an even larger 57 percent. This year DRAM companies plan to invest another $16 billion. Not surprisingly, DRAM chip prices have tumbled more than 60 percent this year. “They’re swamping the market,” says McClean.

Brian Shirley, vice president of memory giant Micron Technology, admits the DRAM market has been “a bit rockier than we anticipated” this year. He cautions, though, that DRAM demand is still growing, while some of the capacity expansion that’s been announced may not actually occur.

Micron, nonetheless, has been diversifying for several years into new areas such as digital image sensors and NAND flash memory chips. DRAM now contributes about 70 percent of the company’s sales, Shirley says. And while that broader product base slowed Micron’s growth during last year’s DRAM boom, it should help during the downturns.

No.2-ranked Samsung Electronics, whose 2006 chip sales rose 10 percent to $19.6 billion, has had less success diversifying. Despite years of investing in logic chip development, and more recently foundry production, its reliance on memory chips actually has increased. McClean notes that memory chips have climbed from 80 percent of Samsung’s chip sales in 2003 to 88 percent in 2006.

Fabless gains

One key 2006 trend that’s not reversing is the continued strength of fabless chip companies. Although most of the industry’s top 20 companies still operate their own fabrication plants, leading fabless companies such as Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia and Marvell were among the industry’s fastest growing non-memory companies last year. McClean says that fabless chip makers collectively grew 15 percent in 2006, while integrated device makers (IDMs) grew just 9 percent.

Some of that disparity is due to fabless companies’ relatively smaller size. But there’s little doubt that the fables business model is gaining popularity. “They don’t have the overhead [costs] that an IDM has, so they can be much more nimble,” says Gartner’s Barber.

Foundry manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which grew 19 percent last year to $9.7 billion, is benefiting from the shift to outsourced manufacturing. And Chuck Byers, TSMC’s director of worldwide brand management, sees no end to the trend. In fact, he expects “industry recomposition” –including mergers, joint ventures and IDMs shifting to “asset-lite” strategies – to gain momentum as the industry matures. “You’re going to see more of this rather than less, he says.

Worldwide 2006 Top 50 Semiconductor Sales Leaders Ranked by Growth Rate ($M)

2006 Rank Company Headquarters 2005 Tot Semi 2006 Tot Semi 06/05 % Change

1 ProMOS Taiwan 916 1,845 101%

2 Elpida Japan 1,954 3,474 78%

3 Powerchip Taiwan 1,603 2,829 76%

4 Qimonda Europe 3,423 5,413 58%

5 Nanya Taiwan 1,546 2,307 49%

6 AMD U.S. 3,936 5,649 44%

7 Hynix South Korea 5,599 8,009 43%

8 SanDisk** U.S. 2,067 2,927 42%

9 Sony Japan 4,223 5,804 37%

10 Broadcom** U.S. 2,671 3,668 37%

11 Chartered* Singapore 1,132 1,528 35%

12 Marvell** U.S. 1,631 2,198 35%

13 Spansion U.S. 2,003 2,579 29%

14 Qualcomm** U.S. 3,457 4,422 28%

15 Nvidia** U.S. 2,353 2,980 27%

16 SMIC* China 1,183 1,455 23%

17 ON Semi U.S. 1,261 1,532 21%

18 Maxim U.S. 1,670 1,990 19%

19 TSMC* Taiwan 8,217 9,748 19%

20 TI U.S. 11,300 13,200 17%

21 Fairchild U.S. 1,426 1,651 16%

22 Altera** U.S. 1,124 1,286 14%

23 Vishay (incl. Siliconix) U.S. 1,142 1,305 14%

24 Xilinx** U.S. 1,645 1,872 14%

25 Mitsubishi Japan 1,345 1,530 14%

26 IBM U.S. 3,495 3,955 13%

27 UMC* Taiwan 3,259 3,670 13%

28 MediaTek** Taiwan 1,444 1,626 13%

29 Micron U.S. 4,954 5,520 11%

30 ST Europe 8,870 9,854 11%

31 Samsung South Korea 17,838 19,670 10%

32 Fujitsu Japan 3,500 3,858 10%

33 Analog Devices U.S. 2,370 2,587 9%

34 Toshiba Japan 9,045 9,782 8%

35 Freescale U.S. 5,598 6,049 8%

36 Infineon Europe 4,874 5,120 5%

37 National U.S. 1,939 2,027 5%

38 Atmel U.S. 1,676 1,751 4%

39 NXP (former Philips) Europe 5,646 5,874 4%

40 NEC Japan 5,593 5,685 2%

41 Rohm Japan 2,813 2,850 1%

42 Sharp Japan 3,430 3,471 1%

43 Sanyo Japan 1,715 1,640 -4%

44 Renesas Japan 8,266 7,900 -4%

45 Matsushita Japan 4,097 3,835 -6%

46 Intel U.S. 35,395 32,268 -9%

47 Oki Japan 1,770 1,590 -10%

48 Agere**(Merging w/LSI) U.S. 1,735 1,525 -12%

49 Avago** U.S. 1,825 1,588 -13%

50 ATI** (Purch. By AMD) Canada 1,810 1,350 -25%

*Foundry **Fabless

Source: IC Insights

Four of the world’s top 15 semiconductor suppliers—Hynix, Sony, AMD, and Qimonda—registered more than 35 percent growth in 2006.

The strength in the 2006 DRAM market, which increased 32 percent, fueled a surge in sales at Hynix and Qimonda. Sony received a big boost in semiconductor sales in 2006 from a spike in internal transfer revenue from its new PlayStation 3 game console ramp-up. AMD’s 44 percent jump in 2006 sales was driven by the company’s noticeable microprocessor market share increase (although AMD is still only about one sixth the size of Intel) as well as its second-half 2006 acquisition of ATI. IC Insights believes that when full-year 2007 sales for the former ATI business are included, AMD is likely to move into the top 10 this year.

As shown in the chart above, Taiwanese DRAM producer ProMOS displayed the highest growth rate among the top 50 semiconductor suppliers in 2006, having more than doubled its sales. As a result, ProMOS jumped 20 places in the semiconductor company rankings, from 56th to 36th. In fact, three of the top five fastest-growing semiconductor suppliers in 2006 were Taiwan-based DRAM producers. Moreover, all of the top five fastest-growing semiconductor suppliers last year were major DRAM vendors.

This chart shows that eight companies posted negative results for 2006. Half of them were Japanese. In contrast to these firms, 19 semiconductor suppliers grew at better than twice the 2006 industry average. Among these 19 high-growth companies were 10 U.S.-headquartered suppliers and only two Japanese-headquartered companies—Elpida and Sony.

Comparing the 2006 semiconductor sales growth rates of the companies in the top 50 according to headquarters location, the combined sales of the six top-ranked Taiwanese companies registered the fastest 2006 semiconductor sales growth rate (30 percent, an increase of more than three times the industry average).

In contrast to the fast-growing Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers, the Japanese companies were once again the laggards in growth. The 12 top-ranked Japanese semiconductor suppliers’ 2006 sales increased only 8 percent in 2006. Moreover, excluding Elpida and its DRAM-driven sales surge, the remaining 11 Japanese companies’ combined sales increased only 5 percent last year, about half the total industry growth rate.

Intel significantly held back the combined growth of the top-ranked U.S.-headquartered companies in 2006. Including Intel, the combined 2006 sales of the 23 top-ranked U.S. semiconductor suppliers increased only 8 percent, one point less than the market average. However, excluding Intel, the remaining 22 U.S. companies’ semiconductor sales jumped 18 percent last year, twice the industry average.

 
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